OpenAI expects about $50bn in revenue this year, the Guardian reports. That is roughly $20bn below the $70bn it had recently signalled to investors, and the gap raises doubts about how quickly demand for AI is growing.
Key takeaways
- OpenAI has told investors it expects revenue of about $50bn (£37bn) this year, according to the Guardian.
- The new projection is roughly $20bn lower than the figure of about $70bn that the company had recently indicated to investors.
- The Guardian reports that the revised forecast is based on OpenAI’s sales up to the end of September.
- The gap has raised questions about whether demand for generative AI is growing as fast as many investors had assumed.
- No public explanation has been given for why the earlier and later figures differ so widely.
What OpenAI has told investors about its revenue
OpenAI, the company behind the ChatGPT chatbot, has given investors a revenue projection for this year that is much lower than one it shared recently. The Guardian reports that the company now expects revenue of about $50bn, or roughly £37bn. Earlier signals to investors had pointed to about $70bn, so the revised figure is around $20bn lower.
According to the Guardian, the new forecast is based on sales up to the end of September. In other words, it rests on nine months of actual trading rather than on early-year expectations. A projection built on most of a year’s real sales is usually treated as more reliable than one made before those sales happened.
Several details are not publicly known. It is unclear exactly how the earlier $70bn figure was put together or in what form investors received it. It is also unclear which parts of the business account for the shortfall. OpenAI has not published a detailed breakdown of either figure in any source available for this article.
Why the forecast gap is in the news now
The story matters because of its size and its timing. A difference of $20bn is a large share of the expected total, and it is not a minor rounding change. It has also come at a time when investors, governments and companies are spending heavily on the belief that demand for AI will keep rising steeply.
OpenAI is one of the most closely watched companies in the AI industry. Its revenue is often used as an informal measure of how much consumers and businesses are willing to pay for generative AI. When the leading company in the sector sharply lowers its expectations, people start asking whether the wider market is growing as fast as assumed. The Guardian frames the news in exactly those terms, saying it raises questions about the very fast growth in demand for AI.
How OpenAI makes money and why its growth matters
OpenAI began as a research organisation and later built a commercial business around its AI models. Its best-known product is ChatGPT, a conversational assistant used by individuals and organisations. Broadly, the company earns money in three ways:
- Consumer subscriptions: individuals pay for premium versions of ChatGPT.
- Business plans: companies pay for versions of ChatGPT for their staff.
- Developer access: software developers pay to connect OpenAI’s models to their own products through an application programming interface, usually charged by how much they use it.
Running large AI models is expensive. Training and serving them needs specialised chips, large data centres and a great deal of electricity. Much of the AI industry has justified heavy spending on infrastructure on the expectation that revenue will grow fast enough to cover those costs. A company’s projected revenue is therefore not just a figure for its own accounts. It also signals whether the economics of the whole sector are working out as planned.
OpenAI is privately held, so it does not publish the regular audited financial statements required of listed companies. As a result, most outside understanding of its finances comes from what it tells investors and what is then reported by the press. This is one reason a change in its projections gets so much attention.
Who is affected by a lower revenue projection
The most direct effect falls on OpenAI’s investors. They put money into the company partly on the basis of expected growth. A lower revenue outlook may lead them to reconsider what the company is worth, although how any particular investor will respond is not known.
The effect also reaches other companies. Businesses that supply chips, cloud computing and data centre capacity to AI developers depend on continued demand from firms such as OpenAI. Microsoft, a major investor in and partner of OpenAI, is closely tied to the company’s commercial performance. Other AI developers may be judged by the same standard: if the most prominent company is growing more slowly than signalled, observers may ask whether its competitors face the same pressures.
For everyday users of ChatGPT, there is no immediate or visible change. Any longer-term effects, such as changes to prices, product plans or free access, would be speculation at this stage, and none has been announced in the reporting this article draws on.
Where informed observers disagree about AI demand
The revised figure is likely to support two quite different readings.
A sign of slowing demand. Some see a gap of this size as evidence that excitement about AI has run ahead of what customers will actually pay. On this view, the industry’s spending on infrastructure is based on demand forecasts that may be too optimistic, and a correction could follow. The Guardian’s framing suggests this question is now being asked openly.
Still rapid growth. Others are likely to point out that $50bn would still be very large revenue for a company of OpenAI’s age. They would argue that a forecast being cut does not mean the business is shrinking. On this reading, the problem lies more with how high expectations were set than with the business itself. Growth that falls short of an ambitious target can still be strong growth.
There is also a narrower question about communication: how a company can tell investors one figure and then a much lower one shortly afterwards. Whether the earlier figure was an aspiration, a scenario or a firm forecast is not clear from the available reporting. That uncertainty is central to how seriously the gap should be taken.
What the revised figure means in practice
For people trying to understand the AI industry, the main lesson is to treat projected revenue figures with caution. Projections for private companies are not independently audited. They can also change considerably as real sales data comes in. The Guardian’s report that the new figure rests on sales up to September shows how expectations can shift once actual trading results are available.
Businesses deciding whether to adopt AI tools are unlikely to see any direct change from this news. However, it may encourage closer scrutiny of supplier stability and long-term pricing. Investors and analysts may give more weight to evidence of actual paying usage than to headline forecasts.
More broadly, the episode feeds into a long-running debate about whether spending on AI infrastructure will produce enough revenue to justify itself. One revised forecast does not settle that debate. It does, however, give sceptics a concrete figure to point to.
What to watch next
Several developments will show how significant this revision turns out to be:
- Any explanation from OpenAI of why its projections changed, and which parts of the business fell short.
- How investors respond, including any change in the company’s valuation in future funding rounds.
- Signals from partners and suppliers, especially cloud and chip companies whose own forecasts depend on demand for AI.
- Revenue updates from other AI developers, which would show whether the shortfall is specific to OpenAI or reflects wider market conditions.
- Year-end trading, since the current forecast is based on sales up to September and the final figure for the year may still differ.
Frequently asked questions
How much revenue does OpenAI expect this year?
According to the Guardian, OpenAI has told investors it expects revenue of about $50bn, or roughly £37bn, for this year. The newspaper reports that this projection is based on the company’s sales up to the end of September. That means it reflects most of a year’s actual trading rather than early estimates. The final figure for the full year is not yet known and could still change.
Why is OpenAI’s revenue $20bn lower than expected?
The Guardian reports that OpenAI’s new projection of about $50bn is roughly $20bn below the $70bn it had recently indicated to investors. A detailed public explanation of the difference is not available. It is not known which products or customer groups account for the shortfall, or how the earlier, higher figure was calculated in the first place.
Does this mean the AI boom is over?
Not necessarily. A lower forecast has raised questions about how fast demand for AI is growing, but $50bn would still be large revenue for a young technology company. Some observers will see the gap as a warning sign. Others will say expectations were simply set too high. One company’s revised projection cannot settle the wider question by itself.
Is OpenAI a public company?
No. OpenAI is privately held, so it does not publish the regular audited financial statements that listed companies must release. As a result, much of what is known about its finances comes from what it shares with investors and what is then reported by news organisations. This makes its revenue projections harder to check independently.
Will ChatGPT prices change because of this?
There has been no announcement of price changes linked to the revised forecast in the reporting available for this article. Any suggestion that subscriptions, business plans or free access will change as a result would be speculation. Users should rely on official OpenAI announcements for any changes to pricing or product availability.
How does OpenAI make money?
OpenAI earns money mainly from paid ChatGPT subscriptions for individuals, business versions of ChatGPT for organisations, and charges to developers who use its AI models in their own software. The exact share each of these contributes to total revenue is not publicly broken down in the sources available for this article.
Sources and further reading
- The Guardian: technology reporting on OpenAI’s revised revenue projection for this year
- OpenAI: the company’s official announcements and product pages describing its services
- Financial and business press: wider coverage of AI industry investment and infrastructure spending
- Technology policy and industry analysts: commentary on the economics of generative AI
Surfaced from the rss:guardian_tech signal “AI company revenue forecast”. AI-assisted draft, editorially reviewed.
